At 6pm local time on July 13th and 8am Beijing time on July 14th, former US President Trump was shot at a campaign rally in Pennsylvania, which could potentially change the direction of the 2024 US election. The shooting incident has made Trump's return to the White House almost certain. Once Trump takes office again, it undoubtedly adds new uncertainties to China and even the global economic landscape.

Based on the precedent set by Trump during his first term, the tariffs he expressed during the campaign will not just be an empty threat. The trade war launched by Trump during his first term imposed Section 301 tariffs on $60 billion worth of Chinese products, and on July 6, 2018, an additional 25% tariff was imposed on $34 billion worth of Chinese products.

In February 2024, Trump said on Fox News that if he is re elected as president in November of this year, he will impose tariffs on China again, with rates potentially exceeding 60%. Bloomberg Economic Research data shows that this will lead to China's exports of $575 billion to the United States being almost zero. In addition to tariffs, Trump said there will be "positive new restrictive measures" at that time, including preventing China from purchasing infrastructure in key areas such as US energy and telecommunications in the future.

According to the spokesperson of the General Administration of Customs, China's commodity exports will reach 2377.26 billion yuan in 2023, an increase of 0.6%. Among them, cross-border e-commerce exports amounted to 1.83 trillion yuan, an increase of 19.6%, accounting for 7.7% of commodity exports. In the first quarter of 2024, China's commodity exports reached 5.74 trillion yuan, an increase of 4.9%. However, cross-border e-commerce exports increased by 14% year-on-year to 448 billion yuan, accounting for 7.8% of the total.

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